And God said, “Let us make a human being in our image, by our likeness, to hold sway over the fish of the sea and the fowl of the heavens and the cattle and the wild beasts and all the crawling things that crawl upon the earth
And God created the human in his image,
in the image of God he created him,
male and female he created them.
And God blessed them, and God said to them, “Be fruitful and fill the earth and conquer it, and hold sway over the fish and the fowl of the heavens and every beast that crawls upon the earth. And God said, “Look, I have given you every seed-bearing plant on the face of all the earth and every tree that has fruit bearing seed, yours they will be for food.” And to all the beasts of the earth and the fowl of the heavens, and to all that crawls on the earth, which has the breath of life within it, the green plants for food. And so it was. And God saw all that he had done, and, look, it was very good. (Genesis 1:26-31)
The world is failing to address a catastrophic biodiversity collapse that not only threatens to wipe out beloved species and invaluable genetic diversity, but endangers humanity’s food supply, health and security, according to a sweeping United Nations report issued on Tuesday.
When governments act to protect and restore nature, the authors found, it works. But despite commitments made 10 years ago, nations have not come close to meeting the scale of the crisis, which continues to worsen because of unsustainable farming, overfishing, burning of fossil fuels and other activities.
“Humanity stands at a crossroads,” the report said.
…As with climate change, scientific alarms on biodiversity loss have gone largely unheeded as the problem intensifies.
Last year, an exhaustive international report concluded that humans had reshaped the natural world so drastically that one million species of animals and plants were at risk of extinction. This year, the World Economic Forum’s annual global risk report identified biodiversity loss, in addition to climate change, as one of the most urgent threats, saying that “human-driven nature and biodiversity loss is threatening life on our planet.” Last week, a respected index of animal life showed that, on average, the populations of almost 4,400 monitored mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish had declined by 68 percent since 1970.
…The biggest driver of biodiversity loss on land is habitat destruction and degradation, mainly because of farming. At sea, the biggest problem is overfishing. Climate change will play an increasing role as its effects intensify over the coming years. And the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss are inextricably linked. For example, since trees soak up and help store carbon, clearing forests intensifies climate change, while restoring them helps mitigate it.
…Despite the overall failure, the report highlights areas of progress around the world, bright spots showing that people have the power to protect and restore nature, not just destroy it. Conservation efforts have prevented an estimated 11 to 25 bird and mammal extinctions over the last decade; without these actions, researchers calculated, the number most likely would have been two to four times as high.
“If you put in place the policies, they do work,” Mr. Cooper said.
…The report calls for eight urgent transitions in the way we use lands and oceans, grow our food, eat, build our cities, manage our fresh water and more. For example, we must eat less meat and fish, bring nature into cities and quickly stop burning fossil fuels.
With these bold changes, it is not too late to slow and ultimately reverse this crisis, the report found.
“We still need this planet to live on,” Ms. Mrema said. “And we still need this planet for our children.”
The subject of climate change rose to a new prominence in the presidential campaign this week as both candidates responded to the wildfires that are raging on the west coast of the U.S. President Trump said that global warming will somehow reverse itself. “It will start getting cooler. You just watch,” he said. When Wade Crowfoot, head of California’s Natural Resources Agency and an expert in climate and sustainability issues, replied, “I wish science agreed with you,” the president replied, “I don’t think science knows actually.” On the other hand Joe Biden said, “We need a president who respects science, who understands that the damage from climate change is already here. Unless we take urgent action, it’ll soon be more catastrophic.”
There are growing pockets of concern being expressed about “creation care” in Christian communities. Some followers of Jesus, especially younger ones, are talking about environmental issues more and more. Some organizations are making the stewardship of God’s gift of creation their mission. Here, for example is a statement from Operation Noah, a Catholic organization that was set up in 2004 to provide a Christian response to the climate crisis. They approach the issues from a “faith-motivated, science-informed and hope-inspired” perspective.
What has the climate crisis got to do with being a Christian?
Operation Noah believes that the likelihood of runaway global warming raises questions that go to the heart of our Christian faith.
We believe that God’s creation is a gift that we have a duty to care for and that the wellbeing of all creation matters to God. We must repent for the damage we have done to the earth.
We also believe that climate change is about justice, because the poor of the world – those who have done the least to cause it – are already suffering the devastating consequences of the climate crisis. Acting on climate change is about loving our neighbours: that means those in other countries and future generations too.
Here is a list of other faith-based groups focusing on ecology (I don’t know enough about many of them to recommend them or not, but you can do the research).
The report cited above is indeed a further wake-up call for me. I’ve made a new commitment to read and learn more. I’ve begun with E.O. Wilson’s book, Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life, which I was first introduced to by singer Paul Simon a couple of years ago when he was recommending it at his concerts. I’ll let Wilson have the last word today, and give you a glimpse at the radical solution he proposes to protect the creatures of the earth.
You will note that Wilson is extremely skeptical about religion’s role in this. He has a right to be, given our record. But I don’t share his dismissal of people of faith. The calling should be abundantly clear to us — one need not go past the Bible’s first page to see a robust description of it. If only we will listen and put it into practice.
Noah’s Ark. Marc Chagall
What is man? Storyteller, mythmaker, and destroyer of the living world. Thinking with a gabble of reason, emotion, and religion. Lucky accident of primate evolution during the late Pleistocene. Mind of the biosphere. Magnificent in imaginative power and exploratory drive, yet yearning to be more master than steward of a declining planet. Born with the capacity to survive and evolve forever, able to render the biosphere eternal also. Yet arrogant, reckless, lethally predisposed to favor self, tribe, and short-term futures. Obsequious to imagined higher beings, contemptuous toward lower forms of life.
…We need a much deeper understanding of ourselves and the rest of life than the humanities and science have yet offered. We would be wise to find our way as quickly as possible out of the fever swamp of dogmatic religious belief and inept philosophical thought through which we still wander. Unless humanity learns a great deal more about global biodiversity and moves quickly to protect it, we will soon lose most of the species composing life on Earth. The Half-Earth proposal offers a first, emergency solution commensurate with the magnitude of the problem: I am convinced that only by setting aside half the planet in reserve, or more, can we save the living part of the environment and achieve the stabilization required for our own survival.
2020 has pretty much been a wasteland — uncharted territory marked everywhere with signs of death and the potential for despair. When T.S. Eliot wrote “The Wasteland” (edited by his friend Ezra Pound) 100 years ago in the early 1920s, Europe was such a place — lying in waste, devastated by the horrors and destruction of World War I. And the image was also personal for the poet. Eliot himself was recovering from a nervous breakdown, while also dealing with his wife’s poor physical and mental health.
I have always found the second stanza of Part I of The Wasteland, “The Burial of the Dead,” to be a profoundly accurate statement of “disorientation,” the wilderness experience of aloneness, dryness of spirit, lostness, “fightings without and fears within.” With allusions to Ezekiel and Ecclesiastes, Greek myths, and quotes from Wagner’s “Tristan and Isolde,” Eliot mixes images and language to paint a picture designed to “show [us] fear in a handful of dust.”
Last week’s poem by Mary Oliver was hopeful, a reminder that every new day, with its ponds and blooming lilies, is a reminder that God answers our prayers without us even praying.
Today, we consider the desert expanse where the divine seems absent, life is barren, and not even love nor the gods can move us from feeling suspended helplessly between living and dying.
• • •
What are the roots that clutch, what branches grow
Out of this stony rubbish? Son of man,
You cannot say, or guess, for you know only
A heap of broken images, where the sun beats,
And the dead tree gives no shelter, the cricket no relief,
And the dry stone no sound of water. Only
There is shadow under this red rock,
(Come in under the shadow of this red rock),
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning, striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
Frisch weht der Wind
Der Heimat zu
Mein irisch Kind
Wo weilest du?
“You gave me hyacinths first a year ago;
“They called me the hyacinth girl.”
— Yet when we came back, late from the Hyacinth garden,
Your arms full, and your hair wet, I could not
Speak, and my eyes failed, I was neither
Living nor dead, and I knew nothing,
Looking into the heart of light, the silence. Öd’ und leer das Meer.
Have you had a Covid-19 project? Like many others, my project has been my back yard.
Last year I had a unused corner of my yard that was in some significant shadow, so I planted some Hostas. Just two little beds, tucked away in the corner.
This year I looked at those beds and said I really should do a little more with them, so I created another larger bed in front, and a smaller one in behind.
But then I thought to myself, “I really have been running these in a line, I should maybe extend them out the other way as well.”
So created a fifth garden bed.
And I said to myself, “Wouldn’t it be nice if I could sit out here and enjoy these garden beds?” So I created a sixth and seventh garden bed with a little half circle seating area.
But looking at that seating area, I said to myself, “cute, but just a little bit too small”, and that back garden bed really needs some plants.
“But how am I going to get to my pretty little seating area?” I guess I need to create a path.
“But look, the area in front of my shed is overgrown with weeds!” Guess I need to create garden beds 8 and 9.
“Oh look someone is giving away free rocks, maybe I can build that retaining wall and stone steps that I wanted.” (As a side note: Almost all rocks and plants were acquired for free in this post.)
So this weekend I loaded 64 wheelbarrows of rocks into a rented truck, drove them home (8 trips) and unloaded 64 wheelbarrows of rocks into my back yard (I did have some help 🙂 ). This is going to be used for next years project.
“Oh look, it’s midnight, and I haven’t started my post for the Gospel of Mark yet!”
I guess the Gospel of Mark will have to wait until Friday.
Wow, sometimes I bite off a bit more than I can chew!
Have you had times when you bit of more than you can chew? It is a recurring theme in my life I know. There are always so many things that I want to do, but just don’t have time for. On the positive side, we now have an outdoors area where we can visit with a couple of friends at a time.
Have you had any fun or rewarding Covid-19 projects? Do you want to help me build a retaining wall and stone steps next spring? 😉
As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome.
We have people who have made justice their God, yet another instance of the litany of humanity’s idol worship. We have people defining justice as they see fit rather than wrestling with what Biblical justice is. And, in the end, we have people abandoning Christ.
Michael O. Emerson has written an article at Christianity Today that comments on the social justice movement and how some Christians are “distancing themselves from the faith” in order to work for justice in society. It’s called, Goodbye Christ. I’ve Got Justice Duty, and I encourage you to go to the link and read it.
Emerson begins by giving two examples. The first is a white male pastor who became concerned about racial inequity and how the church has been complicit in maintaining white dominance. Emerson lists some of the ways he watched him change as he moved away from the kind of faith he held to a commitment to justice.
He began to question his interpretation of the Bible.
He began to question whether or not personal morality really mattered as much as he had previously thought.
His language changed and became “saltier” as he fought against injustice.
His countenance changed and he became more frustrated, angry, and bitter.
His sermons changed and he depended less and less upon the Bible.
Emerson also describes a white female professor, serious about her Christian faith. As she began to study more about racial justice, she became more and more frustrated with the church, which didn’t seem to care. She distanced herself from her faith community. She began to question many of her previous ideas, including her sexual identity. “I will not live in the repressive gender binary system that is unjust, limiting, and harmful,” he quotes her as saying, adding that she came to see the Bible as promoting unjust systems of oppression.
Two people, two stories. They represent what I see repeatedly. Christians grow up in faith defined as an individual relationship with Christ. When they learn that God cares about justice, and when they see the whiteness and complicity of the faith they claim, they either become tied tenuously to that faith, mocking many aspects of it, or they leave it all together. (Emerson)
Michael Emerson cites others who have observed this kind of transformation. And he concludes, “Ultimately, we have what my pastor Peter Hong calls ‘Justice without Jesus,’ resulting in frustrated, embittered ex-Christians joining others bent on bringing justice to the world no matter the means. Only the end goal matters.”
But Emerson thinks this is a dangerous bypath, and that a commitment to the biblical Christ is the only way to advance true justice by practicing “the politics of heaven” rather than those on the left or the right. He acknowledges that the church has made this exceedingly difficult in many ways and for many reasons, but he encourages people to seek out communities of faith that are less dominated by white privilege, to read books that promote justice from a biblical perspective, and to learn from Christian activists who are already engaged in the work itself.
I have sympathy for what Michael Emerson says here. However, I think he is naïve about how faith-change occurs.
One of the hallmarks of Internet Monk has been its insistence that escaping “mere Churchianity” can and usually does involve a journey into the wilderness. Some people simply have to leave. Out of the institution, beyond the boundaries, and into unmarked places where one must deconstruct one form of faith in order to reconstruct something else in its place. This journey may take a long, long time. The way and its resemblance to anything that looks like a traditional religious path might not apparent.
And we must be patient with people on the journey. Who knows where they may land?
I hate to see anyone break from Christ and become “converted” to another cause. But when the bourgeois church presents a Christ who is ignorant and unconcerned about issues like racial and social justice, then perhaps the church is not where Jesus may be found after all.
And perhaps some of these folks that Michael Emerson is so concerned about will actually find the real Jesus in the neighborhoods and streets, blessing the poor, the mourning, the meek, and those hungering and thirsting for justice today.
• • •
NOTE FROM CM: I have removed several comments. Some of you cannot read a post and comment without the subject being diverted back to the POTUS and related matter. The author of the post I’m commenting on today said nothing about DT, showed no inclination toward supporting him, agreed that the U.S. church has been complicit in racism, recommended several resources for Christians who are interested in social justice, and even set forth, in general terms, a Christ-centered definition of justice and shalom. His article was a lament that people are leaving the church, not that they are leaving right-wing politics. Please stay on topic.
Mourners hug beside the names of the deceased Jesus Sanchez and Marianne MacFarlane at the National September 11 Memorial and Museum, Friday, Sept. 11, 2020, in New York. Americans commemorated 9/11 with tributes that have been altered by coronavirus precautions and woven into the presidential campaign. (Photo: John Minchillo, AP)
Fires continued to rage in southern Oregon, where hundreds of homes have been razed, as well as east of Salem, where two bodies have been found, and along the state’s coast. More than 900,000 acres have burned, nearly double a typical season. Hundreds of thousands of people have been ordered to evacuate, including parts of the Portland suburbs, where fires were still on the move.
In California, firefighters continued to battle the blazes of a remarkable wildfire season, including the August Complex burning in the Mendocino National Forest that is now the largest fire in the state’s recorded history.
In Washington, hundreds of homes and other structures were at risk of wildfires that continued to burn, even as a deadly stretch of dry winds from the East began to ease. Hilary Franz, the state’s commissioner of public lands, said the state was searching for help from elsewhere in the country.
One of our blogging friends, Michael Newnham aka The Phoenix Preacher, lives in Phoenix, Oregon and has been posting on Facebook about his own difficult and challenging experiences with regard to the wildfires. Here is a picture of his community from this week of devastation:
Please keep Michael and his family in your prayers, along with the millions of other people affected by these fires and their aftermath.
1. If there is nothing distinctly Christian about how you approach politics, there’s probably nothing distinctly Christian about how you approach anything else…and your faith is basically fire insurance…
2. The doctrine of justification by faith alone has come to mean that intellectual assent to a set of propositions allows you to enter heaven after living like hell for a lifetime…I don’t blame the doctrine, I blame the models…
3. I laugh when people who can’t tolerate minor discomfort and inconvenience talk about persecution…I suspect the martyrs gag…
4. Some of the people struggling most during the pandemic are the “fixers”… remember that you’re only responsible to be faithful, not for outcomes…
5. The reason why Christians have no problem with the President’s character is the same reason they have no problem with abusive and corrupt clergy…
6. No matter who wins the election, we will be no more moral or holy as a church or a country…because elections are not how you gain in those graces…
7. No matter who wins the election, we will all lose…because we have been trained to be constantly angry without pursuing peace and how to hate without hope of reconciliation…not because of lofty ideals, but for ad dollars…you think you’re being informed, but you’re really being played…
8. I’ve tried to shrink my circle to avoid strife…soon, all my friends will have tails…
9. When there are so many things to worry about, I find myself worrying about nothing at all…if things are that overwhelming, they’re above my pay grade…
10. I refuse to feel guilty about enjoying “insignificant” things or occasionally ignoring “significant” things…the ability to prudently do both are gifts from God…
•
Update from Jeff Dunn:
Jeff’s wife continues to improve and will be going to rehab. The doctors are pleased with her progress. Jeff thanks all the iMonks out there for their continuing prayers and encouragement.
•
Police use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse protesters during a demonstration in Portland, Ore., Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020. Hundreds of people gathered for rallies and marches against police violence and racial injustice Saturday night in Portland, Oregon, as often violent nightly demonstrations that have happened for 100 days since George Floyd was killed showed no signs of ceasing. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
Germany says 10 European countries have agreed to take 400 unaccompanied minors who fled Greece’s largest migrant camp when it was gutted by fire.
Most will go to Germany and France, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer told reporters on Friday.
Close to 13,000 people had been living in squalor in the Moria camp on Lesbos.
Families have been sleeping in fields and on roads after fleeing the blaze on Wednesday, as authorities struggle to find accommodation for them.
Near the ruins of Moria, residents of the island blocked roads to stop charities from delivering aid and said they were against the construction of new tents.
But the Greek military later used helicopters to reach the site and have begun setting up replacement accommodation.
After visiting the area, European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas announced that the devastated camp would be replaced by a modern facility at the same location.
The Moria camp was initially designed to house 3,000 migrants. People from 70 countries had been sheltered there, most from Afghanistan.
A battle of wills between a California musician known for a series of open-air Christian worship concerts around the country and the city of Seattle, which denied him a park venue for a Labor Day concert, ended with a two-hour “worship protest” being held one block north of the park.
A group of local pastors located an alternate site on a blocked-off portion of Meridian Avenue North only hours before the 6 p.m. concert was set to begin. They got permission to hold the rally with the proviso that it be called a “worship protest.”
Sean Feucht, 37, the rally organizer, laughed about the conflict with city officials while welcoming the crowd of 800 to 900 people.
“Welcome to Seattle’s largest worship protest,” he said at the beginning of a two-hour set. “Turn to each other and say, ‘Welcome to the protest.’ In this city, that makes it a legal gathering.”
Feucht had originally planned to hold a sunset concert at the picturesque 20-acre Gas Works Park on Seattle’s Lake Union. The concert was part of the #LetUsWorship movement, a series of protests against COVID-19 bans on singing and large group meetings in churches.
The musician held a similar event in August in the city’s CHOP (Capitol Hill Organized Protest) district, where the fact that few worshipers had worn masks raised eyebrows at Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s office.
The governor has allowed outdoor worship gatherings of up to 200 people as long as masks are worn even while singing, people stay 6 feet apart, and there are no choirs or musical performances involving more than two people.
Feucht’s concerts, which have drawn thousands of spectators and worshipers at 21 gatherings around the country, ignore all those guidelines. The events, a mix of Christian concert, healing service, guerrilla street theater and spectator mosh pit, feature the kind of public singing forbidden under many COVID-19 regulations.
“We want to come and bless this city,” Feucht told reporters before Monday’s concert. “We’ve not had one COVID case tracked back to our concerts. This is about blatant discrimination against Christians. They’re not doing this with other demonstrators.”
It was all, he said to the crowd minutes later, about the freedom to worship.
“Politicians can write press releases, they can make up threats, they can shut down parks, they can put up fences,” he said. “But they can’t stop the church of Christ from worshiping the one true God. We are here as citizens of America and of the kingdom of God and we will not be silenced.”
…“[We have] declared a new Jesus movement,” he said on a recent podcast with lifestyle supplement entrepreneur David Harris Jr. “We feel this call to target cities under extreme turmoil, despair and brokenness. That’s why we’ve gone into downtown Portland a block from the riots; we’ve gone into CHOP in Seattle. God’s really writing a different story there. There’s a lot of people wanting to experience God in these cities.”
On Friday, Feucht and his team will head on the road for 14 more rallies, starting in Fort Collins, Colorado, and followed by concerts in Colorado Springs, Minneapolis and, on September 16, Kenosha, Wisconsin, site of recent riots involving the police shooting of 29-year-old Jacob Blake, a black man. Feucht’s last rally will be on October 25 on the Mall in Washington, D.C.
Hall of Famer Lou Brock, who died at age 81 at a local hospital Sunday afternoon after being in ill health, will be remembered for many accomplishments. He was the National League’s all-time leader in stolen bases with 938. He had 3,023 hits. He was a first-ballot electee into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. He was the “Base Burglar,” who came to the Cardinals in 1964 via a trade in which the Cardinals ripped off the Chicago Cubs.
But he also was known as one of the toughest baseball players that his former teammates had ever seen and that was before he encountered diabetes which caused him to have his left leg amputated. Before he suffered multiple myeloma (bone marrow cancer), before he suffered a stroke, before he suffered a heart ailment.
None of those medical foes were able to vanquish Brock. Death was the first and only opponent to defeat him. “Isn’t that the truth?” said former Cardinals catcher Tim McCarver.
…On June 15, 1964, the Cardinals acquired Brock, a raw, 24-year-outfielder from the Chicago Cubs in a trade that cost them popular righthander Ernie Broglio, who had been a 18-game winner for them the prior season although he was 3-5 in 1964 and perhaps injured.
Immediately, the trade was not well received by the Cardinals’ players. “We thought it was the worst trade ever,” said Gibson at the time.
After all, Southern University product Brock had batted only .263, .258 and .251 in his 2½ years with the Cubs, albeit hitting some prodigious home runs.
But Brock, not counted on for power but as a table setter for the Cardinals, would hit .348 the rest of the 1964 season and steal 33 bases as the Cardinals rallied to win the National League pennant on the last day of the regular season and went on to beat the New York Yankees in a seven-game World Series to bring St. Louis its first World Series title since 1946.
Brock hit .300 in that World Series and then, showing he was at his best when the lights were brightest, batted .414 with seven stolen bases in the 1967 World Series, which the Cardinals won in seven games from Boston. He also hit .464 with seven more steals and a record 13 hits in the 1968 World Series loss against Detroit.
…From 1965, Brock began a stretch of 12 seasons where he averaged 65 steals and 99 runs scored a year, featuring his record-setting season in 1974 when he set the then major-league stolen-base record of 118 while finishing second in the voting for National League MVP.
…Brock’s No. 20 was retired by the Cardinals in 1979. He later became a businessman, a broadcaster, a special base running instructor, a minister and, finally a survivor.
A musical composition designed to take well over 600 years to play has gone through its first chord change in seven years.
John Cage
Entitled “As Slow as Possible” (ASLSP), the composition by the late American composer John Cage is due to be played out over 639 years at the St. Burchardi church in Halberstadt in Germany.
Needless to say, no one will hear the piece in its entirety but the project has garnered quite a following, with many masked fans flocking to the church over the weekend to witness the event. For those unable to attend in person, there was a livestream.
The performance started in 2001 on an organ specially built for the super slow-paced recital. During that time, there was a pause that lasted for 18 months, while the most recent note change took place in 2013.
If all goes to plan, the performance will come to an end in 2640. Fans will have a relatively short wait for the next momentous occasion, however, as the next chord change is due in February 2022.
•
The really, really bad news you may not have heard…
A polar bear stands on melting sea ice at sunset near Harbour Islands in Canada. (Paul Souders/WorldFoto / Getty Images)
The global Living Planet Index continues to decline. It shows an average 68% decrease in population sizes of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish between 1970 and 2016. A 94% decline in the LPI for the tropical subregions of the Americas is the largest fall observed in any part of the world.
Why does this matter?
It matters because biodiversity is fundamental to human life on Earth, and the evidence is unequivocal – it is being destroyed by us at a rate unprecedented in history. Since the industrial revolution, human activities have increasingly destroyed and degraded forests, grasslands, wetlands and other important ecosystems, threatening human well-being. Seventy-five per cent of the Earth’s ice-free land surface has already been significantly altered, most of the oceans are polluted, and more than 85% of the area of wetlands has been lost.
Species population trends are important because they are a measure of overall ecosystem health. Measuring biodiversity, the variety of all living things, is complex, and there is no single measure that can capture all of the changes in this web of life. Nevertheless, the vast majority of indicators show net declines over recent decades.
That’s because in the last 50 years our world has been transformed by an explosion in global trade, consumption and human population growth, as well as an enormous move towards urbanisation. Until 1970, humanity’s Ecological Footprint was smaller than the Earth’s rate of regeneration. To feed and fuel our 21st century lifestyles, we are overusing the Earth’s biocapacity by at least 56%.
These underlying trends are driving the unrelenting destruction of nature, with only a handful of countries retaining most of the last remaining wilderness areas. Our natural world is transforming more rapidly than ever before, and climate change is further accelerating the change.
CHICAGO — On Sunday (Sept. 13), Mark Galli will stand before Bishop Richard Pates in the Cathedral of St. Raymond Nonnatus in Joliet, Illinois, to hear these words:
“Francis, be sealed with the gift of the Holy Spirit.”
Pates will then dab Galli’s forehead with anointing oil (using a cotton ball instead of his thumb due to COVID-19). And with that, Galli — who has chosen his confirmation name after St. Francis of Assisi— will become a Roman Catholic.
…Galli’s late in life conversion has been gradual and carefully considered.
The first inkling came in 1994 when he served as editor of a magazine called Christian History and wrote a cover story on St. Francis of Assisi, whom he admired for his message of simplicity, poverty and submission to church authority even when he knew the church was not always right.
In the intervening years, Galli has slowly moved away from the evangelical mainstream. He started out a Presbyterian, then became an Episcopalian and an Anglican. For a time he attended an Orthodox church.
Two years ago when Galli expressed an interest in attending the course of study for Catholic converts called Rite of Christian Initiation for Adults, his teacher John Ellison, himself a convert, knew Galli’s mind was made up.
…“I want to submit myself to something bigger than myself,” Galli said.
“One thing I like about both Orthodoxy and Catholicism is that you have to do these things, whether you like it or not, whether you’re in the mood or not, sometimes whether you believe or not. You just have to plow ahead. I want that. If it’s left up to me, I am one lazy son-of-a-bitch. I will not do anything unless someone comes along and says, ‘You need to do this. This is really important. This will shape your life. Come on, Galli. Get off your butt.’”
Mark Galli was born into a Catholic family, so this change is more of a reversion than a conversion. He entered the world of evangelicalism at age 13, when his mother had a spiritual awakening while watching a Billy Graham rally on TV. When Gail and I visited Mark and his wife several years ago, we attended their Anglican church with them. And now he has completed the circle, returning to the church tradition of his youth. We wish him Godspeed on his continuing journey.
Reconsider Jesus – A fresh look at Jesus from the Gospel of Mark
A devotional commentary by Michael Spencer
Compiled and Edited by: Michael Bell Table of Contents
The Temptation
12 Immediately the Spirit impelled Him to go out into the wilderness. 13 And He was in the wilderness forty days being tempted by Satan; and He was with the wild beasts, and the angels were ministering to Him.
Mark 1:12-13 – NASB
Like so many things in Mark, this passage seems highly abbreviated when compared to the other Synoptic28 Gospel accounts. Matthew and Luke add details of the temptation that have become the center of many sermons and lessons. As a result, some of Mark’s version has been obscured.
The most striking thing about this passage is the verb ekballo used by Mark to indicate how the Holy Spirit drove Jesus into the desert. Mark uses this verb 17 times, often in the context of exorcisms. The force of the verb is not captured by the NIV’s “sent”. Better is the NASB “impelled.” We are not to think that Jesus is reluctant to experience this chapter of his life, but to see the strong hand of the Spirit leading Jesus in his ministry. The Spirit of the Lord is truly “upon” him29 and we read of similar strong directions by the Spirit in both the Old and New Testaments.30 John’s gospel records many statements of Jesus explaining that he is in the world to do and say exactly what he is directed by the Father. We are not to think of Jesus as a puppet, but we are also not to think of the Holy Spirit as anyone less than the sovereign God! God’s Spirit is the mightiest of powers and we should expect strong leadership of the Holy Spirit in those things that are in the plan and purpose of God.
The experience of Jesus as a Spirit-filled and Spirit led human being is important for Christians. In order to keep a real doctrine of the humanity of Christ, we must confess that the Spirit’s work in and through Jesus is not substantially different than in the life of the believer. The difference is in Christ’s sinlessness and divinity, but not in his human nature. We should not be afraid to study how Jesus experienced God. God will lead us as surely as he led Jesus. As we affirm that, let us remember where that leadership took him – to the cross.
Jesus goes into the desert “immediately” after the baptism. There is something of a pattern here for all who are interested in following Jesus. First, there is the place of obedience. Then there is the blessing of assurance that I am God’s child. Then there is the driving out into the place of temptation and testing. The place of temptation and testing is as much God’s work as the blessing at baptism. Mark is clearly telling his readers that, like Jesus, their testings and temptations are part of their experience as God’s children. We should beware of any version of Christianity that speaks of uninterrupted bliss without God-sent experiences of testing and temptation. In the desert Satan was the instrument of temptation, but the author of the experience was God. C.S. Lewis observed in The Screwtape Letters that God will not let a new believer live on the mountain top, but will drive him or her into the valley in order to develop faith and strength.31 While it may seem like a time of chaos, it is part of God’s purpose and God’s plan. It can result in a faith and strength that is not addicted to some emotional state, but dependent on God.
The desert is a familiar motif in the Bible as a whole. In the Old Testament, the desert was the experience between deliverance from Egypt and the conquest of the Promised Land. It was a place of cleansing and purification through testing and often painful trial. The Prophets looked back at the desert as the time of Israel’s true “romance” with God; the time when God prepared his people to be his covenant bride.32 It was in the desert that Moses met God through the burning bush,33 Hagar experienced God’s compassion,34 and John the Baptist prepared for ministry. The desert also has negative connotations: This passage speaks of wild animals. David speaks of “a dry and dreary land where there is no water.”35 It was also seen as a habitation of demons.36 From the very beginning, Jesus’ path is not only to heavenly glory, but a road of conflict with evil.
Mark omits the fasting of Jesus and the nature of the temptations, but he is clear that this was not a physical test but a spiritual battle. Jesus was tempted by Satan himself. This encounter between Jesus and the arch fiend has to be one of the most fascinating moments in the entire Bible. Even the other synoptic Gospels treatment is surely not exhaustive. The author of the book of Hebrews tells us that “because he himself suffered when he was tempted, he is able to help those who are being tempted.”37 He builds on this theme by stating that “we do not have a high priest who is unable to sympathize with our weaknesses, but we have one who has been tempted in every way, just as we are – yet was without sin.”38 These verses describe the entire incarnation, but the focused temptation of Jesus is also in mind. I must firmly reject that interpretation of the temptation which says Jesus could not have sinned. The writers of scripture want us to see this as real battle. The victor is the almighty Son, but in this time he is weak and weary like we are, yet he has resisted and shown us how to resist.39 His victory over every kind of temptation is a hope to every person who prays out of their own existential struggle. “Nobody understands me like Jesus”40 is the truth.
I cannot pass this passage without poking at least once at those who would deny the existence of Satan. While I accept that Jesus was a man of his time, I do not believe Satan is a cultural symbol, but an essential part of the biblical portrayal of evil. The Bible’s picture of evil includes fallen humanity and a fallen creation, but there is more – there is a personal and diabolical dimension of evil that is not explainable by environment or heredity. Jesus believed in fallen creation and sinful people, but he also believed in the personal, intelligent and malicious enemy of God.41
God often seems to use forty days or forty years to do his work in the lives of his chosen. We ought to beware of those who believe God can be manipulated by imitating forty days of prayer or fasting. Such ascetic imitation may be impressive, but it is not the point of the passage. Jesus was in the wilderness long enough for God to prepare him for his destiny.
Mark then gives us a glimpse into the presence of angels assisting Jesus in his time of testing. Angels appear throughout the Bible as ministering spirits. The birth accounts in Matthew and Luke show that angels have been involved with Jesus from the very beginning. Luke has a similar story of an angel ministering to Jesus as he prays in anguish prior to his crucifixion.42 The book of Revelation is our best study of angels, showing that the angels are devoted to the worship of the Son of God.43
Mark is not trying to present Jesus’ experience of angels as unique. Throughout the book of Acts there are stories of angels involved with the early Christians. I believe that they are involved with us as well. Having said that, the Bible discourages interest in angels on the level we are seeing it today. Most cults and even many orthodox Christians cross the line in fascination with angels into something approaching idolatry. Much false information about angels is transmitted through the New Age movement and other spiritual counterfeits. We should be grateful for the ministry of angels, but not seek to invoke or manipulate them. Angels do their business without our assistance or applause.
Before we leave the story of the temptation, I think it is important that we reconsider one key point. The temptations that we face are not unique. Jesus was tempted as we are, yet did not sin. In a future chapter we will explore this further. Why do we so often fail when we are tempted? How did Jesus have a human nature yet not sin? Knowing that Jesus was tempted as we are, but did not sin, not only gives us confidence in him, but also gives us confidence that he can help us in our own times of testing. This is only part of the good news that Jesus offers, for he is about to step onto center stage for the first time and let the world know that “good news” has arrived!
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Footnotes:
[28] Matthew, Mark, and Luke are referred to as the Synoptic Gospels because they share many of the same stories, often with similar wording, and often in the same sequence.
[31] C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters, Chapter 9.
[32] Jeremiah 2:1-3; Hosea 13:5
[33] Exodus 3
[34] Genesis 16
[35] Psalm 63:1
[36] Matthew 12:43
[37] Hebrews 2:18
[38] Hebrews 4:15
[39] Ephesians 6:10-18
[40] Nobody understands like Jesus. Music & lyrics by Linda Greenfield & Michael Fenemore. 1984
[41] Read People of the Lie by M. Scott Peck. While I can’t endorse most of Peck’s work, this psychiatric case that this book makes for the existence of the devil is very good.
[42] Luke 22:43
[43] Revelation 5:11-12; Revelation 7:11-12
Notes from Mike Bell:
1. What questions or thoughts come from your mind from what you have just read?
2. Would you be interested in a paper or Kindle version of the book when it is available? Please email us at michaelspencersnewbook@gmail.com so that we can let you know when it is ready.
3. Find any grammar or spelling errors, phrases that are awkward or difficult to understand? Also send these type of comments to the email address above.
Michael Zimmerman, the Founder and Executive Director of the The Clergy Letter Project, has written an article titled, “Why I’ll not be Taking a Covid-19 Vaccine — and I’m a Scientist.” The Clergy Letter Project is an organization that was founded to show that numerous clergy from a variety of denominations have embraced evolutionary theory and find it harmonious with their religious faith. The Clergy Letter Project is an endeavor designed to demonstrate that religion and science can be compatible and to elevate the quality of the debate of this issue.
It is a favorite sister site to BioLogos, so BioLogos founder, Dr. Francis Collins, who is a physician and geneticist known for spearheading the Human Genome Project and for his landmark discoveries of disease genes, and is now the director of the National Institutes of Health, was quite dismayed and wrote a rejoinder to Zimmerman’s article on the BioLogos site entitled “Francis Collins Responds to COVID Vaccine Skeptic”.
Zimmerman’s problem with the developing vaccine is that he is afraid politics will triumph over science in the vaccine’s release. He is concerned because of the Trump administration’s meddling with the CDC and FDA, that a vaccine will be rushed out that either isn’t safe or isn’t effective just to help Trump’s re-election campaign. Zimmerman says:
I can only conclude that the leadership of both agencies have been thoroughly corrupted and are acting for political rather than scientific reasons.
What else can anyone believe when the CDC changed its guidelines for opening schools upon the direction of the president?
What else can anyone believe when the FDA commissioner granted emergency authorization for the use of convalescent plasma despite remarkably limited data supporting such a decision and then lied about what the data actually indicate after pressure from the president?
What else can anyone believe when the CDC, after hearing the president demand that Covid-19 testing be slowed down, rewrote its guidance for testing saying that asymptomatic individuals, even those in close contact with people who have tested positive, should not be tested?
What else can anyone believe when these actions, as well as so many other recent actions, are attacked by virtually all in the scientific community as being scientifically and medically unsound?
Collins responded that the “…vaccine approval process will have to be transparent for all to see — that has already been guaranteed.” He urges Zimmerman to withhold judgement until the data is out. Collins says:
Why would you prejudge the outcome now? Are you allowing your own scientific judgment to be overcome by the current political tumult, and granting a victory to the forces of irrationality?
Please reconsider. Righteous indignation is one of my favorite emotions too, but sometimes it needs to be scrutinized. Many people depend on you and the Clergy Letter Project to bring a faithful blend of scientific reason and God’s love to a hurting world. Does this stance fit with that? Prayerfully consider what God would expect of you at a time like this. Lives are at stake.
Zimmerman wrote back and thanked Collins for his gracious but blunt letter but said:
Where we disagree, however, is in the critical statement that you made in your next paragraph. You wrote that “the vaccine approval process will have to be transparent for all to see — that has already been guaranteed.” If only that were to come to pass. I don’t mistrust you, those who report to you and all of the bench scientists who are working so hard. I do mistrust the current administration and those in power at the FDA and the CDC who have demonstrated that they are unwilling to pay attention to the data, to fully share data informing their decisions, and to tell the truth. I mistrust the president and those who report directly to him to do what’s in the best interest of the American people – indeed, the people of the world.
Collins then replied:
Thanks for your rapid response. I hear you. But be careful that you don’t end up hoping and praying for the vaccine to arrive after January 20 — when an earlier scientifically rigorous result would have potentially saved many lives. I am totally comfortable with you expressing your deep concern, but I would ask you (and by extension your readers) to keep minds open until you see the actual data on safety and efficacy. I believe it will ultimately be impossible to keep that out of public view.
It is an interesting and respectful exchange between two credentialed scientists who are both Christians on a very important, even vital, topic. I have high degree of respect for Francis Collins and am somewhat encouraged that he believes the vaccine approval process is sufficiently transparent to assure the public will be well served. He is in a position to know, and I don’t doubt that if he discerned a problem he wouldn’t hesitate to go public about it. Still…
I have to give weight to Zimmerman’s concerns. There seems to be little doubt that the CDC caved to presidential pressure to change its guidelines to school reopening. Even more problematic was when the CDC rewrote its guidance for testing saying that asymptomatic individuals, even those in close contact with people who have tested positive, should not be tested.
Bottom line: although I trust Francis Collins, I do not trust Donald Trump to act in the best interests of the American public. If a vaccine comes out before the election I will not be first in line to try it. If a vaccine comes out after the election and Trump is re-elected, I still will not be first in line to try it.
Wednesday with Michael Spencer A Theology of Everything (2004)
This is a story that happened where I work, so I need to tell you some things before we can go on.
Our school has thirty minutes of chapel scheduled into every school day. It’s been like that for one hundred and six years, and nothing is more distinctive about our school than our daily chapel service. One of my responsibilities is to oversee that chapel service and to preach in it frequently. After 12+ years, I feel some stewardship of that time, and I think I understand its purpose.
Normally, chapel is a short, simple, worship service. We sing, pray, someone preaches. But there are other things we do in chapel. We present awards. We recognize various kinds of excellence in athletics, academics and fine arts. We have creative ministries days. We have guest speakers and musicians. We are flexible in what we do, because our school is very diverse and many things happen on the campus in a week that we may want to talk about as a school family. So while we are mostly a worship-oriented chapel, we can be anything the school day demands, from convocation, to entertainment, to school business.
Last week, our school won a historic boy’s basketball victory against our archrival, Clay County. We defeat Clay County in boy’s basketball about once a decade if we are fortunate. To beat them is a huge accomplishment for our little school, not just on the court, but as a total school. They are a large public system known for relentless excellence in basketball. They have great fan support. Their boys play together from elementary school on and the community support is unsurpassed. Their commitment to winning is known all over the state.
On the other hand, we are a tiny, private school. Our kids would almost all be junior-varsity type players on a major public school athletic program. Many couldn’t play on the teams of our public school rivals. They have no parents in the stands and few boosters cheering them on. Because we are a boarding school, things are different. Most of them do not know each other at the start of a season. Also,anyone who comes out makes our team. We don’t cut for ability, so it is a diverse group in every way.
The boys work hard to be a successful team. They practice every morning from 5:30 -7:00 a.m. They are disciplined and motivated, even though almost every team they will play will be expected to beat them. The attitude of this team exemplifies so much of what we want to teach our students. They are good examples of what makes Oneida a special place.
The amenities of our program are modest, but we try to be generous. We have great kids, great cheerleaders, faithful student/faculty fans, great administrative support and a wonderful pep band. Our school President stands on the floor and cheers with the kids. We’re proud to be who we are, and we want our students and staff to be proud. Those good feelings overflow into everything else we do as a school.
So when we beat Clay County last week, 63-45, it was a big deal. To say the least. Big enough that I asked the athletic director, boy’s coach and high school principal if we could take our chapel time the next day and just savor the moment. It was a major event for our school, our boys and especially our coach, who is an amazingly gifted person who has come a long way on his own life’s journey.
So we celebrated. We bragged and applauded. We thanked everyone from God who gave the boys their talents to the ladies who pack sack lunches for road trips. We thanked the band, the cheerleaders and the fans. We drew out lots of lessons for the students. We complimented the entire sports program. The coach told a little of the story behind each boy on the team. Over and over again we heard about the progress those young men made at our school, and how that progress was exemplified on the court. If you believe God has sustained this ministry for over a century, then you would understand that such a victory encourages us to keep doing all we can to be the best school we can be.
Considering we live by the donations of people who rarely see our kids, considering that quitting is easy and considering that we all get pretty discouraged working with often difficult teenagers, it was a wonderul moment and a great day. It was way cool.
On to the rest of the story.
It was the next day, and I was leaving the school lunchroom, walking down the sidewalk toward my car. Behind me, I heard a voice.
“When are we going to collect and melt our jewelry?”
It was a fellow teacher, someone I knew well. An outspoken person, with a point of view that I can usually appreciate, but also a person who sees our work differently than I do, particularly as it involves athletics. What was he talking about? I am not the quickest person in the world when someone wants to play Biblical allusions. I didn’t grasp the meaning of his question.
“What?”
“When are we going to melt our jewelry into golden basketballs so we can worship them?”
I won’t entertain you with the rest of this conversation. I denied we were worshiping anything. He disagreed. I said it was a good day for the school and worth savoring. He disagreed. I said I was proud of the boys and proud to work at our school. I didn’t hear the response.
Not a very interesting story, I guess. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and as an opinionated person who can rant about silly things done in the church, I can sympathize a bit with my friend’s point of view. Our focus on the victory over Clay County might not have been appropriate for a church worship service, if that is what we were intending to do. He could have said “I think some of what was said was a bit excessive,” and I would have agreed.
Instead, my co-worker implied something quite different and more serious: idolatry. He implied that we were worshiping a different God, or at least giving the place of God to something that was not God. Since my co-worker is aware that we use chapel time to honor all kinds of accomplishments all the time, it may be that he believes we are frequently in a state of idolatry. Or perhaps he simply was piqued at sports displacing worship.
Despite being accosted on the sidewalk and accused of leading a revival of the Golden Calf incident, I appreciated the opportunity to think again about why evangelicals find it so difficult to think about God’s relation to our humanity in anything but condemning, negative terms.
What actually happened in Exodus 32? The fickle Israelites, convinced God had abandoned them and that Moses was dead, turned to the worship of one of the gods of Egypt. Having been in that powerfully polytheistic culture for four centuries, and only hearing of Yahweh as a dim memory, it was relatively easy to build an image of that Apis bull and announce that this was the god who had led them out of slavery. This idolatry was brazen, not accidental.They weren’t being amused by bulls and decided to slip one into the worship of Yahweh. They displaced Yahweh with the image and name of another god, and gave worship and devotion to that god. God was particularly angry at the Israelites for showing their true attitudes toward the Ten Commandments.
I can honestly say, we weren’t doing any of those things when we recognized the accomplishment of our team.
Our chapel service isn’t a formal worship service in a church. It is an informal school gathering, in a worshipful, God centered intention, to focus on God OR on some aspect of school life that deserves attention. If this were a church, and I were under a strict regulative principle, I would be in trouble. But, instead, I am standing at the crossroads of a school day, at the center of the many things that go on on our campus, saying “Let’s give God the honor, glory and praise for _________.”
I have what I call a “Theology of Everything.” I don’t believe that everything is God. There is only one God. But I do believe that everything has to do with God, and the truth about God- particularly the Gospel- rescues everything from being meaningless, and infuses a new meaning into everything in life.
This Theology of Everything intentionally looks for God in the “non-religious” aspects of life. He is always there, and scripture gives us a grid for looking at anything in life through the lens of God in Christ, reconciling the world to Himself. Instead of seeing the world separated from God, as so many evangelicals preach over and over, the Bible shows us a world that God refuses to desert; a world where God stays involved despite the sinfulness of people.
The idea that the world is tainted with sin and must be avoided is gnosticism, not Christianity. It is a kind of manufactured righteousness that specializes in religion being more significant than other human activities. Singing hymns is acceptable. Making three-pointers is not. Preaching and teaching- God thing. Cheering and playing the school song- not a God thing.
This is most clearly seen when we talk about something, but don’t talk about God. If God is not mentioned, it is assumed we have idolatry going on. God has been displaced. Of course, we have the Song of Solomon and Esther, neither with any mention of God. We have a lot of Proverbs, premised on God as the beginning of wisdom, that do not mention God at all. Can we talk about human experience, all the while believing in God, but not mention God at every opportunity? In fact, is it possible that the Jews, in their reluctance to speak the name of God, might have been on to something evangelicals could learn about: not trivializing God by making everything an opportunity to engage in God-speak?
A Theology of Everything doesn’t have to prove God’s relationship to basketball or a great game or a significant recognition of the team. God’s relevance isn’t my responsibility. God IS relevant. He IS central. He DOES change everything. He IS the way, truth and life, whether we are focusing on God or on the best defensive performance of the game.
A Christian school doesn’t make God relevant by constantly, cheaply displaying religion as more important than sports. We show the greatness of God by being able to do our best in sports out of a commitment to what we know of God through His son, Jesus. We can honor a sports’ accomplishment in the context of our faith community, because without God we wouldn’t be doing anything. Saying God is the “all in all” isn’t saying anything but God is a waste of time. It’s a confession that, as C.S. Lewis said, God is the one without which nothing is very real.
God gave us the desire to excel. He gifted those young men. He is glorified in their work ethic. He has given them a good coach and a supportive school. God gave them the drive to overcome great odds through effort, teamwork, unselfishness, sacrifice and leadership. It doesn’t make God greater to draw the circle of His relevance smaller. We ought to draw the circle larger; so large that it encompasses everything.
What has this way of thinking done to the Christian view or art? Creativity? Calling and vocation? Non-religious accomplishments of every kind? Obviously, it has elevated the mediocre (or the just plain bad) because God was talked about, and it has overlooked, ignored and rejected what was covered in the fingerprints of God, just because He wasn’t mentioned in every verse or every page.
In a recent discussion of one Christian filmmaker’s view that evangelicals refuse to see excellence where there is no explicit Christian content, a commenter went into the familiar description of such a view as worldly compromise with a sin-tainted world. I wonder… when you read the scriptures, who is the one who is really most tainted by the sin of the world? Good, moral Christians? Or the God who is there in the middle of the mess we call creation, providing His Son as a mediator who is both “untainted” and “very tainted” so the world can be redeemed? If I go into the world “as Jesus did,” do I go with the intention of being “untainted,” or of redeeming what is tainted by the transforming power of God’s Gospel?
Is this why so many Christian young people think that the only way to serve God and honor God is to talk about God? So they must become preachers and Christian singers? Is this why my school contains so few Christian students planning on a “secular” profession as an explicit expression of their Christian calling? We need a Theology of Everything if we are going to accomplish the Great Commission. Having a God of the Ghetto (Christianized version) won’t matter.
I’m glad I understand there is no way to exclude God, and it is a mistake to ever act as if we do. All our actions may not glorify Him, and all our energies may not honor Him, but a gymnasium is as good as a church when it comes to experiencing the goodness of God’s creation, and I think that God works in far more wonderful ways than we ever suspect. God won’t be limited. It takes human beings to attempt to tell Aslan he isn’t welcome at our celebration of victory.
I was thinking about this so much yesterday, that I knew I had to write it up for today’s post. (We will return in Michael Spencer’s book – Reconsider Jesus – on Friday.)
This graph in a nutshell is what the experience of my home province of Ontario has been with Covid-19. You can click on the graph to view it full size.
I have actually merged two graphs together here and added the orange lines. The top graph if of the “Rt” value of Covid-19 in Ontario and is produced by an Ontario Statistician, Ryan Imgrund. The bottom graph is the 7 day average of reported daily new Covid-19 cases in Ontario as compiled by CTV.
Let me first explain to you what you are seeing, why it is important, and what you can do about it.
The R value of a virus is its rate of transmission. R0 is the rate that it is transmitted if no preventative measures are put in place. That is, how many other people (on average) will one person with the virus infect. With Covid-19, the R value is estimated to be somewhere between 2.5 and 3. If no preventative measures were in place each person with Covid-19 would infect on average about 2.7 people.
To illustrate how significant that number is: If you start with 1 person, after 10 rounds of transmission you end up with 20,000 people infected. After another 10 rounds of transmission you end up with 400 million people infected. This is why we saw such initial rapid growth looking like an exponential graph, because the growth was exponential.
This graph, however, is displaying the Rt number. This is the effective transmission rate of the virus. The transmission rate of the virus can be mitigated by preventative measures. Each addition of a preventative measure reduces the Rt value. Each easing or removal of a restriction increases the Rt value. The key number is the number one. If that Rt value is greater than one, the number of daily cases will continue to grow, if it is less than one the number of daily cases will eventually shrink to zero.
So in the top graph, we can see some of the preventative measures (in red) and some of the relaxing measures (in green).
School closures drastically reduced the Rt value. This was not only because the students stopped interacting, but parents started working from home. It took some pretty drastic steps to get that initial value under one. Not only did we have school closures, but all but essential businesses were closed, then the list of essential businesses was restricted greatly. Finally around April 14th the Rt value dropped below one for the first time.
Note how their is a lag between the first and the second graph. The number of cases in the 2nd graph don’t peak until 10 days later. That is because this graph is of the dates that the cases were reported. People however are reporting cases about 10 days on average after they are infected.
There is another interesting thing that you will see in the graphs, and I have tried to highlight with the orange lines. Generally speaking, every time the Rt value passes through zero you get either a peak or a valley in the number of cases. Cases rise (with a 10 day lag time) when the number is above one, and decline when the number is below one. When is passes through one it is the point at which it is no longer rising or declining and so you get a peak or valley in numbers.
You can see from the graphs that for the most part after the initial clampdowns were initiated, Ontario was able to keep its Rt number under one for most of the next four and a half months. Hence the significant decline in cases per day.
Ontario’s reopening plan has four stages. I won’t go into the details here, but you can look it up. Each stage is more permissive than the previous one. There is an interesting interplay of events happening here. You would expect that as Ontario’s businesses and events opened up, the Rt value would start to go up, but largely that didn’t happen. Why? People started wearing masks. Along with more and more people wearing masks, Ontario municipalities started implementing mask by-laws. This mitigated the impact of businesses opening up and kept the Rt number in check.
By the end of July just about everyone was wearing a mask indoors in public.
So why does the Rt value start increasing at that point, and why do we see the number of cases starting to rise?
Because once everyone is masked, there is not available benefit to be gained from additional people masking. There are no additional people masking. There is not additional downward pressure that is being placed on the Rt value.
Instead we see businesses continue to open, people eating more inside restaurants, churches being a little bolder in relaxing restrictions, friends being a little more lax about how many they socialize with, people returning to office jobs, schools reopening.
While not shown on the graph, the Rt value in Ontario has continued to climb. On August 30th it was at 1.21, the highest point at which it has been since the state of emergency was declared back in March. I am expecting it to continue to climb because of the reasons mentioned above.
Returning to school, in Ontario and elsewhere, is a giant social experiment that I believe is going to have rather severe repercussions.
So what can we do?
Here is what I would encourage each and every one of us to do. Stay a step behind the allowed activities: If you are allowed a social bubble of ten, restrict yourself to five. Want to go back to the office? Continue working from home (if possible) a little longer. If your church is not currently meeting, but is considering meeting again, ask for it to be delayed two or three more months until we start to see the impact of schools reopening. If your church is allowed 50 percent capacity, ask that it stay restricted at 30 percent. Consider home schooling (and I never thought I would hear myself say or write that!)
In short, do what you can to keep your own personal number of contacts with others down. Every little bit that we do helps to bring down that Rt value.
I realize that their are people out there who are struggling, and businesses out there that are struggling. Look for ways to assist them in ways that does not have any measurable impact on the Rt value. Order takeout if you are financially able. Give an encouraging call to someone who is socially isolated. And by all means look after your own mental health. Get as much fresh air and exercise as you can. And don’t be afraid to talk to someone you trust. You are not alone in going through this.
The Internet Monk Archives 